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Canadian Open h2hs
US-SportsLegend Postet 19.07.2016 19:56 Regnskap
  • Sport:Golf
  • Land:Internasjonal
  • Liga:PGA
  • Kamp / utøvere:Cauley - Johnson
  • Tips/ utfall:Cauley
  • Spillestopp:21.07.2016 13:00
  • Odds:2.02
  • Innsats:10
  • Selskap:PinnacleSports

I have been waiting for Pinny to post their lines all day.. At around 18 I got sick of waiting and headed to get breakfast(!) Obviously they decide to post their lines 3 minutes after I get to my favorite pub, so I had to get my ass back home to analyze their 35 tournament match bets. I'm not sure if I want to post all my picks because it will take me forever to write them all up, but anyways, here goes! 71 units spread over 15 picks!!! The sickest thing is that I wanted to take some more as well, but this is more than enough for now, and hopefully I can get a better price on the rest.. 

McGirt > Finau 1.962 5u
McGirt > Hoffman 1.892 5u
Kisner > Lee 1.943 6u
Walker > Knost 1.943 4u
Summerhays > Castro 1.961 4u
Garrigus > Reifers 1.925 4u
Martin > Vegas 1.909 4u
Reavie > Choi 1.892 4u
Tringale > Si Woo Kim 2.00 4u
Blixt > Laird 1.892 6u
Singh > Hurley 1.909 4u
Cink > Merritt 1.961 3u
McCarthy > Senden 1.909 4u
Stuard > Stefani 1.909 4u

I really need food now, so I'll be back with a write-up of these picks later tonight or after golf tomorrow morning!  

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Re: Canadian Open h2hs
US-SportsLegend Postet 20.07.2016 18:12 Regnskap
After a nice day in the sun golfing on a great course, it's time to do some work again! 

Cauley > Johnson.. For some reason Pinnacle decided to make a player that shouldn't even have played this event if not for a top 10 finish in his pro debut favorite against a quality player in Bud Cauley. I really don't understand that, and I still think there's value in 1.877 that's available out there now. Johnson did play well to finish 3rd last week in the Barbasol, but the starting field was bad, Vegas came back and let everyone else into it, he was playing on a course he had played a million times in University (Auburn tigers!) and he got into this event because of it. Cauley has finished MC-13-4 here before, so he clearly likes it despite one missed cut. He was disappointing last week with only a 31st place finish, but over the season he has a decent 36.20 average finishing position. He is also a very good iron player, and he will get to take advantage of that on this course where the 2nd shot is a lot more important than the tee shots. I just have him as a massive favorite here, and I would be surprised if Johnson can follow up his great performance in his pro debut with another one. He will never have played the course, and he will have all the pressure in the world on him as he needs another top 10 to be allowed to keep playing on the PGA Tour. 

McGirt > Finau is a nice bet because I like McGirt's chances this week, he is in great form (I don't even count the MC in The Open), and he has terrific course form with 2 2nd place finishes and 35th here last year. He has great overall stats, and his putting is top notch, so he could be one to watch this week. The fact that he is so consistent makes for a good match bet as well. Finau played this course for the first time last year and finished 22nd, so he can't be completely ruled out, but he contended in The Open up until Sunday when he "finally" faded away, and I wouldn't be surprised if he can't give it 100% this week. Average finishing positions alone actually makes this a great bet, and I would've had more units if the next bet wasn't just as good, I just couldn't have more than 10 units on one player even though they are different bets. McGirt has avg finishing position of 30 while Finau has 34.7, which is quite a lot!

McGirt > Hoffman: Hoffman has 34 avg finishing position, and despite finishing 7th here last year and 16 in 2013, he is not in good form at the moment, and he is putting very poorly, which will be very detrimental this week as Putting Average is the one stats that seems to be valued over the other ones at this course. 77-33-57-37-42 in his last 5 starts tells me he is struggling with something, and I'm happy to disregard the fact that he has great course form. Also a very solid bet.

Kisner > Lee: Kevn Kisner is a great player and he finished 10th here in his only time playing the course in 2012. He also played the Canadian Open in 2014 at a different course, and he finished 9th, so he clearly likes it in this event. After a good start in good conditions on Thursday in The Open he played terribly on the Friday, and missed the cut. I was gonna write that I like the fact that he missed the cut since it would've given him another 2 days rest over Lee, but Danny also missed the cut, so they've both got that going for them. Danny Lee has only played here once, and he missed the cut, he also has pretty poor form except for the Scottish Open the week before The Open where he finished 3rd, and very easily could've won it. I was not at all to see that he didn't stand a chance at The Open, and I am happy to fade him again. Kisner has slightly better average finishing position (32 vs 33) and I think he is finding some great form again. I always knew he would have 0 chance in The Open once the winds came, as he himself said in interviews before the event that he hated playing in even a light breeze. He actually said that he couldn't even put when it was windy, so you know that someone like that wont have any confidence or stand a chance when the wind comes. The Thursday and the 16th place finish in his last outing in the WGC is a great indicator that he is finding some form. I might fancy him for a bet in the outright as well, especially if he keeps drifting. 

Walker > Knost: I know someone has been tipping Knost up this week, but we were happy to lay him this week, and I can't have him for this tournament. Knost's "only" strength is that he hits virtually every fairway, but at Glen Abbey that's not really a stat that looks to matter at all, so his main edge in a lot of tournaments is gone already before he starts. Walker has 32.5 while Knost has 34.5 in average finishing position, and the only stat that stands out for me on Knost is the driving accuracy which I knew he would be number 1 at. Out of the two, Knost clearly has the better form with 3rd in Barracuda 2 weeks ago, but his course form is very bad, and Walker had a decent 16th place finish 3 weeks ago in the Quicken Loans, and he is the better player here, so I'm happy to go against Knost's form. 

Summerhays  > Castro was also an automatic bet. I was always gonna bet Summerhays in a matchbet this week, pretty much against anyone he would be matched up against, so I wasn't thrilled when I saw Castro, but it still has decent value. Castro has decent course form with 48th last year and 6th in 2013, and he went well for a while in the event for everyone not good enough to be in The Open, but he was bad over the weekend and only finished 11th. Before that his form was absolutely terrible, and I wouldn't be surprised if he misses the cut again. Summerhays finished 11th here last week, he was only 59th in The Open, but that was never gonna suit his game, more interestingly is that he was 21st in Quicken Loans and 8th in US Open, so he is playing well at the moment. His putting average is very good (23rd) and he has a decent avg finishing position of 31.9, Castro has avg finishing of 36.70(!) and he also plays a lot worse events than Summerhays does, making it easier to have high finishes. He is also bad at PA. Very easy bet, and having analyzed it again I would've probably added another 2-3 units, but the price has shortened up a bit.

Garrigus > Reifers. Ok, this one has drifted a lot, and I'm quite surprised by that to be perfectly honest. If you have been reading my previews you will have seen that I have tipped Reifers in both h2hs and outright, so I clearly like him, and he has decent form, but his record at Glen Abbey is just terrible. 4 missed cuts out of 4!! Garrigus has also missed the cut in his last 2 attempts here, but he didn't exactly have great form at that time in 2013 and 2015, and he has finished 2nd here in 2012, so he will like it here. He also has the distance to reach all the par 5s, and his main weakness driving accuracy (194th!) wont be as important this week, so I can easily see him go quite low. He has a decent putter and has had a couple of weeks lately where he has putted very well, so if he can string things together I wouldn't be too surprised to see him contend again. Reifers is also a good putter, but he is very consistent off the tee and like mentioned before that part of his game wont be that important this week. I assume that the average finishing position is what has made Garrigus drift, as he only has 38.8 and Reifers has 35.4. Normally I always go against players like Garrigus in match-plays myself as you obviously want someone with low standard deviation, but this week I'm happy to take him. 2.16 really do seem silly to me, and I might have to have a few more units..

Martin > Vegas: I just have to go against Vegas after he threw an easy win away last week. He led by 9 at some point if I rememeber correctly, and he actually shot a 60 on the Friday where he went birdie-eagle-birdie-birdie-holeinone-birdie and 8 under in the span of 6 holes!!! I watched all of Saturday and Sunday and he just played aweful. While everyone else was making plenty of birdies and shooting under par, Vegas managed to shoot over par and not even being anywhere near the win in the end. Martin has been 31 here before in his only time here, and he is clearly finding some form again with 20-7-44 in his last 3, and I think he should be favored by quite a bit here. If Vegas doesn't start well I can see him just lose his head and miss the cut by miles..

Reavie > Choi: Reavie has won here back in 2008 and has avg finishing position of 37.5 vs Choi's 40.3. None of these players really have any form except for Choi finishing 20th in the PGA Tour last week with the very weak starting field. He was 76th here last year, and Reavie has been 41, 31, 37, 13, MC and won here, so he clearly has the better course form. He has finished 44th in his last two tournaments as well, so I can see him finishing around 20-35, which frankly should be more than enough to beat Choi.

Tringale > Si Woo Kim: People are going absolutely mental over these guys contending in last weeks event where there was a weak starting field. Kim shot a great -9 round (finished with a bogey), and Baddeley made birdie on 17 to get to a playoff. Baddeley won with a birdie on the 4th playoff hole, and Kim's dream of his first PGA tour win was crushed. Tringale has been 44-19-13 here in his last 3 starts (a while ago though), and he has finished 20 and 35, and I like the way his stats are coming together again the last few weeks. Kim has slightly better average finishing position, but this has been a terrible season for the normally consistent and very good player Tringale, so I value more that he seems to be playing better again now. I'm also happy to fade players contending for their first time, and losing in such a long playoff will have taken a lot out of Kim. Before that playoff he was pretty much missing cuts left and right, and he probably went off as a 500 or so shot last week, to  give you an indication of how he was rated before.

Blixt > Laird: Blixt avg finishing position 37, Laird 42.5.. Laird has a terrible putter (124 PA), Blixt has a great one (10), Blixt was 22nd here last year, Laird missed the cut. Laird is the most inconsistent player in the history of the PGA tour (ok maybe not that harsh), but he has super high standard deviation, and he will be a bet against in match bets on pretty much anyone! We haven't really seen much of Blixt lately, but this is the type of course that suits him perfectly, and he might contend if he can hit some greens. In this matchbet he should be a massive favorite. 

Singh > Hurley: Singh really likes this course, and he has won here ages ago, along with a 2nd, 2 6th, and a 7th place finish. He has been playing brilliantly as of late, and he is absolutely striping the ball every shot. He is still a terrible pitcher and putter, so that's not exactly a good sign if you've read the rest, but I still have to take him against Hurley. Hurley winning the Quicken Loans (Singh finished 2nd) was one of the biggest upsets in a while, and he hasn't done anything after, and absolutely nothing before. He misses more than half of the cuts, and he rarely finishes in the top 50. In fact he had _0_(!!!!!!) top 25 finishes on the PGA tour the entire season! That might not sound that bad if I didn't tell you that the season started in October or something... I see Hurley missing the cut again, and consistent Singh winning just because Hurley sucks, 42 vs 44 average finishing position. If this was a course where putting wasn't that important I would have this a max bet for sure.

Cink > Merritt. Cink likes this course, 5th last year, 34, 11, 4 in the other times he's played it. He doesn't have any form (doesn't play much), but if he just makes the cut he should win this one every time. Merritt has missed the cut 3/3 times here, and 20-MC-68-MC in his last 4 starts isn't exactly scary. His 20 place finish was in the easy event last week, so I can't give him too much credit for that one either. Not a fantastic bet, but Cink was probably 0.10 too big or so.

McCarthy > Senden: This is purely based on form. Senden has missed the cuts in his last 2 tournaments, and they have been the super easy ones he should be contending in (Barbasol and Barracuda), and he is just absolutely off his game now. McCarthy is playing in only his 2nd event ever on the PGA tour, and the first since 2010. I am still all over him though, because in his last 6 starts on the Canadian tour he is 34-1-8-1-6-1. Obviously the Canadian tour is a smallt our, but 3 wins and 5 top 8 finishes in his last 6 starts? He is clearly doing something right, and I can see him take this momentum to the PGA Tour, and he is probably a favorite to make the cut, while Senden really isn't. Senden also has terrible avg finishing position at 41.5. We don't have any data on McCarthy obviously.. 

Stuard > Stefani: 39 vs 44 in avg finishing position, Stuard is a great putter, Stefani is a terrible one.. Stuard was 22nd here last year, and 16th in his last start on the PGA tour, Stefani only managed 31 in the Barbasol, 66 in the Barracuda and 44th in the Quicken loans where Stuard finished 16th. Stefani has never even played this course. I am stunned by the fact that Stuard has drifted from 1.909 to 2.03 and I am adding 4 units on that one for a total of 8 units at 1.97.
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